Previously, I discussed reasons our economy would go through a major downturn.[1] My study of major bear markets[2] indicates that after a market top and drop, such as the one we have experienced since January 26, there is a second top coming within -2.6% and +2.9% of the first. This marks the beginning of a major bear market. Having arrived at the traditional topping range, what can we reasonably expect moving forward?What follows is a summary of market behavior for every major bear market since 1929 that, like ours, was preceded by a correction. There are six of them starting in 1929, 1937, 1946, 1969, 2000, and 2007. S&P 500 data is used for the 1968, 2000, and 2007 bear markets. Dow Jones closing data[3] was used for all bear markets before that.1929
The largest drops for this market were (trading days from the peak given in parentheses) 13.5%(12), 11.7%(13), 9.9%(17), 6.8%(20), and 6.3%(9). The 30-day average change was -1.07%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 15.1%. By day 30 it was 31.0%.1937
The largest drops for this market were 5.0%(18), 4.5%(15), 4.3%(28), 4.1%(24), and 3.1%(20). The 30-day average change was -0.68%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 6.0%. By day 30 it was 19.1%.1946
The largest drops for this market were 2.5%(15), 1.2%(13), 1.0%(30), 0.95%(14), and 0.77%(8). The 30-day average change was -0.13%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 0.9%. By day 30 it was 3.9%.1968
The largest drops for this market were 1.4%(19), 0.92%(3), 0.90%(17), 0.89%(4), and 0.77%(18). The 30-day average change was -0.29%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 2.7%. By day 30 it was 8.4%.2000
The largest drops for this market were 2.6%(28), 1.9%(24), 1.6%(27), 1.5%(19), and 1.4%(10). The 30-day average change was -0.33%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 5.0%. By day 30 it was 9.6%.2007
The largest drops for this market were 2.9%(10), 2.6%(15), 2.5%(6), 1.8%(27), and 1.6%(29). The 30-day average change was -0.24%. By trading day 10 the % loss was 2.6%. By day 30 it was 7.3%.All the bear markets declined gradually for the first week. In fact, it was rare to find a substantial drop during that first week. Except for 1969, none of the largest percentage drops took place during the first week and those were only 0.92% and 0.89%. Markets did begin to diverge during the second week with the 1929, 1937, and 2000 markets dropping 15.1%, 6.0%, and 5.0%, respectively, after 10 trading days.Once the top was reached, there was no turning back. Instead, most markets had a steady decline. The only exception was the exceedingly volatile 1929 market, which declined 35% by the 13th day recovered 19% and subsequently resumed its decline. This is an important point for our market since the S&P 500 had an intraday high of 2801.90 March 13. This placed it within 2.5% of the January 26, 2018 high, just within the window for the second peak topping range. That would have placed that potential second peak historically early for a major bear market with a correction preamble. The fact 24 trading days later we are still waffling back and forth and in a recent uptrend is in stark contrast to previous major bear market profiles and argues against that being the second peak.Note that, except for the 1929 market, which by that time was recovering, none of the markets had reached bear territory 30 trading days after the market peak. Technically, the 1937 market had dipped into bear territory days before it but was only sitting 19.1% below the peak by day 30. All the other markets were only approaching correction level territory.Given that summary, it is likely that we will also experience a gradual decline with little damage the first week. In fact, with large loss days paling in comparison to those we saw in early January, it may well lull investors into a sense of complacency. Having gone through a long correction already, there will likely be little concern a month and a half later if the 30th trading day arrives with losses still in the single digits. That would be a mistake as the bear relentlessly creeps up on us.[1] It’s Not Over, EzineArticles, April 9, 2018.
[2] The Coast Is Not Clear – Signs of an Impending Major Stock Market Crash, EzineArticles, February 20, 2018.
[3] Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) was used to gather the Down Jones closing data and in preparing this article.

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Having a great idea and the motivation to strike-out on your own is a good first step in pursing the feasibility of a business. However, it takes more than motivation and a great idea to get things started. This article will reveal some of the simplest considerations that most would-be business-owners overlook.The very first thing that should not fall under consideration is venturing out on your own without the proper tools beyond the scope of a great idea. According to statistics provided by the Small Business Administration, over 90% of small businesses fail due to a lack of planning. How many times have you heard or witnessed individuals that sat up over a weekend and wrote a stellar business plan then headed out on Monday morning to seek funding or investors? Impatience is the second thing that needs management. So often “I am tired of working for someone else” is the premise for people to start a business. This frame of mind will almost ensure failure because this approach to business involves looking backwards at getting out of a bad situation.There is a prevailing philosophy that has to evolve, “Not all people are cut-out to become business-owners”. This is a harsh reality to face in a country such as the United States that prides itself on autonomy and ownership. Starting a business requires a commitment that may or may not pay dividends quickly. The key threat to small businesses is the initial funding or start-up cost and therefore many under-capitalized ventures hit the markets and get that rude awakening.Before spending your first dollar a best practice is to do your “free research” on the Internet and in public libraries. Read recently published academic studies on the industry in which you plan to pursue. It takes more than just knowing a certain aspect of the business being that your competition may be more well-versed about the industry as a whole. You may want to ask questions such as “What are the regulatory requirements to do business within that particular industry?” You may want to research about “systemic exposure” or how the rest of the economy could or would impact that industry during troubled financial times. It is also a good practice to review some of the strategies of other potential competitors during The Great Recession of 2008. How did the industry leaders survive jn respect to operational changes and sacrifices. It is understandable that this may take several days or even weeks to accomplish, but by applying the best practices initially you will have a clear understanding of what to expect during certain economic times.It is essential to understand who are the industry leaders within your business channel and what makes them unique. There should be an emphasis on this because your branding and marketing could benefit from such a consideration. A distinguishing characteristic may be customer service, quality assurance, product branding, or even presentation. These may sound trivial, but think about if you were a retailer for mens apparel and you specifically wanted to appeal to young urban males under the age of thirty. Labels equals status in many of these communities so a nice logo on the item that is visible may assist in the popularity and purchase of your garments. Even though this may have more to do with marketing and brand positioning, this is a must have against the competition.However, before we get to marketing and branding there are other things needing consideration such as your mind-set, ego, time-line, available start-up capital, and feasibility. After you have trolled through the data and information from your research, the next step is the feasibility study. It is suggested that you do this prior to writing a business plan. In this way you can quickly determine whether or not you can enter the particular market or not and if so, at what level. A common mistake for new business people is to envision competing with the industry leaders. This is an ideal way to go broke quickly. In stead, set more realistic goals for yourself and get the notion out of your head that the Internet is going to make your business global. Facebook and the other social networks became popular because they were free to the end-user first and while trying to figure out a way to capitalize or convert those users into revenue. This would be a bad business-model to follow. Think about your region and the local competition first to see how much it would cost for you company to operate for the first 3 to 5 years without constant revenue.Again this will require more local research this time on your specific region and take not of the deviations between your first broader macro research and the more localized micro research. The deviation between those two areas may actually become the niche that needs filling. In this way you can actually have a specialized niche within the region and a hybrid on a larger scale. Now, you may ask yourself “Why?” Simply put, the goal is to avoid what others are already doing in the sense that giving a “Thankyou” to a customer in a better way that the competitor is not enough. Another temptation to avoid is the centric mind-set that the business and industry has to behave according to your own belief or philosophy. This strategy rarely works out in a positive way. You have seen these business owners that rarely listens to their customers and as a result they have a revolving door of both customers and employees and the business stagnates and does not grow.Growth must have a major role in the definition of your business because that is the incentive to attract customers, employees, and even investors. As a potential business-owner you will have to cleanse your mind of working for a company and view your company as your tangible boss. This may sound counter intuitive, but the cascade is like this, the economy drives the consumer or businesses that drive behavior which drives your company which eventually drives you to make the right decisions to meet the demand.So far you have done your research, and you know how much it will cost you to compete in your local market. The next thing is to consider your liabilities as it relates to the company. You may use this also to determine what form of business ownership will work for you. It is a good business practice to incorporate whenever possible and in some states there are differences in levels according to projected revenues. Incorporating also gives you more protection than a DBA or partnerships. At this point you will learn another strategy that many successful business-owners do, delegate tasks that require professional expertise to professionals with their fields. A good business attorney, accountant, and business consultant are essential for start-ups. This is a gap that many would-be business people fall through the cracks. Another benefits is that these professionals may also assist in giving information that may be crucial in developing a comprehensive business proposal. They can help with the work you have done to reflect the requirements needed.In review, you have your research, feasibility study, chosen your business ownership type, adjusted your expectations, hired professionals that know the laws and regulations better than yourself and you are ready to get started on the business proposal. Not so fast, “Where are your customers?” You guessed it, marketing research needs to take place for the particular individuals or companies that will use your products and or services within your area or online. One question to ask yourself, “How much will it cost me to contact a potential customer before a sale is completed?” And secondly, you need to discover the best way to contact these people or businesses. The prevailing statistics are that radio advertising a person is a passive-listener and only hears about every fourth word, direct mail only about 9% responds. Signs and other ad-hoc methods vary and television may be expensive depending on stations and providers. This means that a considerable budget may need to exist in order to solicit business. Again, this is another area where many would-be business people fall off the wagon and failure is waiting to catch them.There is not an exact science to forecasting revenues so the goal is to have a very plausible theory and approach to this process. Avoid the temptation of raising expectations too high as some did in the dot com era for instance and went broke. The increases in expected revenue should be modest and function on the Standard Rule of 10, meaning that expenses should never go over 10% of revenue. Now, there are some businesses with a lower profit margin at 50%, but that is akin to paying US$10 for every US$20 received in revenue. As you can see pricing strategies for your products and or services are important and trying to make profits off of volume only works for those entities with high capacity transactions. This is the reason why 99 Cent Stores do so well low inventory cost and high turn-over of products. As a foot-note the difficulty with starting a business with very low prices is that it usually attracts the cost-conscious customer who is rarely brand-loyal and will use a comparable competitor. You see this behavior in customer that may shop at Wal-Mart, but purchase other specific items at the 99 Cent Stores. The danger in depending on these cost-conscious customers is that when prices rise they usually leave. Therefore, your pricing model needs to be established as feasible to sustain the business based on the value-added customer that you can possibly up-sell items or services. This is essential to your company’s growth and expansion.